Einstein through a Distant Mirror

Context matters. Today, Einstein is the very model of a modern genius. That’s an easy image in the era of the internet, when folks can say and do pretty much whatever they please. A century ago, when the young theoretician conducted “thought experiments,” things were different. In a world where “innovation” appears in just about every business magazine, it’s difficult to imagine just how different life might have been in those days before the First World War.

Albert Einstein in 1921, the year he won the Nobel Prize, and first visited the USA.

That’s the key learning from Einstein’s Jewish Science by Steven Gimbel, a professor at Gettysburg College. The author and his book do a wonderful job in framing the time, and the science, and the politics, and the religion, but neither musters much energy from its underlying question. (Spoiler alert: In the end, the author concludes that relativity is not an especially Jewish science.) He explains:

Einstein came to the scientific stage at a time when Western culture was in flux. Old social, political, artistic and intellectual structures were failing. Assumptions that had been protected for centuries were suddenly rejected despite all attempts to maintain them. And here, offering a new and bizarre way to see the entire universe was Einstein. The theory of relativity stands as a symbol of Gestalt shift, a complete change in perspective where you can never view the familiar in the same old way.”

(As I type, I wonder whether the shift that we’ve experienced via the Internet–which now offers instantaneous connections between billions of people all over the planet–would also be “a complete change in perspective where you can never view the familiar in the same old way,” and, if it is (I think it is), why it doesn’t quite feel that way. Maybe because we’ve been consumed by its everyday, now routine, integration into social and commercial life?)

Professor Gimbel of Gettysburg College, author of Einstein’s New Science: Physics at the Intersection of Politics and Religion

Mr. Gimbel goes on, and I continue to wonder about Einstein 2.0, and how he might fare today:

Einstein was vilified by those who clung to the old order. His science, his politics, and his views about religion were all made public in ways that made them difficult to ignore.”

And, my favorite quote from Gimbel:

We take Einstein to be the epitome of the open mind.

If life was so difficult for Einstein and his radical thinking, why do we absorb change in our stride today?

The best answer I’ve found begins about ten years after Einstein passed away.  It’s the subject of a terrific book about the 1960s counter culture, and the bridge that it provided to the 21st century, the digital century where we now live (and read blogs, often instead of books). The book is entitled What the Dormouse Said: How the Sixties Counterculture Shaped the Personal Computer Industry, and it was written by John Markoff. Read a terrific review of this equally terrific book, written by Jaron Lanier, here. Of course, all of this countercultural change was terrifying, and not without its reactionaries. The most robust response is a U.S. Chamber of Commerce document usually called The Powell Memo. It provides a conservative response to the craziness of the revolution, or so the story goes. The Powell Memo is easier to find on liberal websites than on conservative sites. Still, it claims to be the grand plan, the response to radical thinking and the changing of old ideas.

Step-by-step, Professor Gimbel explores the most important questions about science, Judaism, German culture (Weimar, Nazi, post-War), new (20th) century thinking about science and the limits of Newtonian physics, and provides the details in a smart story that is easily read and absorbed (not so, most other books about 20th century science, or religion, for that matter). Still, the core of the book, the essence of it, encourages the reader to think not only about Einstein, but about Einstein’s reflections in a 21st century mirror. How much has changed since Einstein’s time. How thoroughly Albert would enjoy the internet, and the freedom of thought that we now enjoy as American citizens in a digital age, and how profoundly that freedom has affected thinkers around the world.

Five Rules for Happiness

20121111-225133.jpgRayChambers is the first link in the chain. Ray has been an inspiring force in New Jersey generally, and in Newark, specifically. (I’ve seen it first hand, both at the New Jersey Peace Education Summit and in the midst of a New Jersey Network gala).

For LinkedIn CEO Jeff Weiner, Ray has been a mentor, and man who passed on five rules for happiness that Weiner now passes along in today’s New York Times.

  1. Live in the moment.
  2.  It’s better to be loving than to be right.
  3. Be a spectator to your own thoughts, especially when you become emotional.
  4. Be grateful for at least one thing every day.
  5. Every chance you get, help others.
20121111-225216.jpg

Peter DaSilva for The New York Times

When Weiner speaks with students, he adds thoughtful consideration of his own:. He asks students, “Looking back on your own career, what do you want to say you accomplished?” If a student cannot answer quickly and easily, Weiner strongly encourages a thought process leading to an answer.

He adds more advice. His own: “surround yourself with amazing people.” And from MIT Media Lab leader Joi Ito: “maintain a childlike sense of wonder throughout your entire life.”

And, finally, from Einstein: “There are only two ways to live your life. One is as though nothing is a miracle. The other is as though everything is a miracle.”

I prefer the latter. And if you’ve read this far, I suspect that you do, too.

Read the article. It’s a good one.

Provocative Economics from C. Christensen

Excellent article in last Sunday’s NY Times by Clayton Christensen.

Christensen is a Harvard professor who studies innovation, and has written several superb books about how and why it works. His theories turn on a key concept: there are several types of innovation, most notably innovation that sustains and incrementally improves a current situation, and innovation that disrupts, changes the rules.

In this article, he expands his thinking to explain why and how capital can and must be freed to fund an emerging new economy.

BTW: C.C. writes an excellent blog.

The picture comes from Harvard Business School. Whether he is or is not the “top” guy, he’s certain high on my list.

Go read the article. Totally worth your time.

Media Shift / Cutting the Cable

Although I am probably late to the game, I just discovered two very useful tools. The first is a blog post and the second is the blog itself.

Blog post: 2012 Guide to Cutting the Cable

Blog: Media Shift

One at a time:

The article explains the available hardware and software, then provides several case studies of users who have cut the cable, and ends with a very useful list of other articles on the subject.

The blog is stupendous. Here’s local, national and international news and commentary on shifts in just about every modern media industry. The coverage gets down to the hyper-local level, and also offers an extremely wide view of, say, the recent announcement of a merger between two of U.S. publishing’s giants: Penguin and Random House (the latter wins). That article, and this blog, does what so few do: it provides context. So the article about book publishers looks not only at consolidation’s impact on publishing, but also compares the situation with consolidation in the music industry.

Kudos to PBS for this lesser-known project. I now plan to read Media Shift every day.

Tech Changes Education

The Schoology logo connects classroom management, online learning and social networking.

Late in October, just before the storms, Forbes ran a useful summary of several trends that promise to reshape classroom education. It was swritten by Jeremy Friedmanthe CEO of Schoology, a company that makes software for the classroom.

No surprise that the key trends emphasize individualized learning based upon technology. Certainly, the ubiquity of cloud computing encourages document sharing, and collaboration regardless of each individual student’s location. “The 2012 Horizon Report, which provides insights into education technology trends, predicts that collaborative environments are about one year away from mainstream adoption.” That seems ambitious to me, but I’m sure that the most advanced, well-funded, tech-enabled schools will begin to make this statement true.

Given the realities of most schools, the idea of cross-platform integration may seem like an impossible dream, but vendors are beginning to work together to unify their approaches to digital learning. Forbes believes more strongly in this future than I do, or, perhaps, than most teachers probably do.

It’s now nearly impossible to imagine a classroom without mobile technology, but again, imagination is ahead of reality. Certainly, “(Mobile apps) are abundant, inexpensive and easily accessible…” but the question is not the apps, it’s the devices. A new movement toward BYOD (“Bring Your Own Device,” of course) is gaining traction. In itself, this is remarkable: just two years ago, many teachers, principals and administrators were doing everything they could to keep Twitter, Facebook, Tumblr and other “distractions” away from the classroom. Still, the levels of coordination present major challenges: Apple, Android or Windows? Curriculum at the national, state, district, school, classroom, or individual level? For all students, advanced students, average students, challenged students? Apps are easier to develop and produce than traditional software, but it’s not the software engineering that’s the issue, it’s what it does, and how what it does fits into any sort of master plan.

This raises the issue of adaptive learning, a domain that is already being addressed by at least one company: Knewton “responds in real time to the activity of each user on the system and adjusts to provide the most relevant content…” What’s more: “Knewton is able to capture every move a student makes – scores, speed, accuracy, delays, keystrokes, click-streams and drop-offs. The platform collects this data and the software adapts to challenge and persuade the user to learn based on his/her individual style. Pretty amazing stuff!

The buzz idea of the year seems to be gamification–that is, just about everything becomes a kind of game. At first, this seems to be a frivolous undertaking, but you need to think more broadly about games and how they work. A good game is a simulation of life, a design for activity within bounded rules. In this regard, games are a simplification, a reduction of real life situations that allow learners to focus on specific learning objectives. And, these learning objectives are readily scored, and, under the best of circumstances, presented in a way that connects learning and fun.

There’s funding behind this approach: “Game-based learning is even one of the priorities of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, which earlier this year helped launch the Games, Learning and Assessment (GLASS) Lab. According to the organization, GLASS Lab is “based on the understanding that digital games and simulations can support student learning by providing immediate feedback for students, teachers and parents on students’ progress toward established learning goals”” The article describes even more funding from the game maker Electronic Arts, and the Entertainment Software Association, and, also, from the MacArthur Foundation. The non-profit at the center of all of this: Institute of Play. I looked at their website. I need to visit. Soon.

Hurricane Hackers – A New Way to Help, or Be Helped

“Hola! Welcome to #HurricaneHackers: a shared space for gathering information and organizing tech+social projects related to Hurricane Sandy.”

“Dear Civic Media fans —

If you’re in a safe, powered, Internet’d place, here’s a great opportunity to contribute to realtime and future work around Hurricane Sandy…

http://bit.ly/hurricanehackers-gdoc

Civic’s “Hurricane Hackers” is collecting ideas and datasets to create tools related to the storm…and already building tools with them. Everything is welcome. Well-developed projects already include a dynamic timeline, a map of livestreams, and an incredible set of hurricane-related resources — both historical and for Sandy.” (from their introductory email)

This pop-up site may become a very useful tool in the next 24-72 hours. It’s a contributory document, a group collaboration to gather relevant links and guidance. The organization behind the project is the Center for Civic Media at the MIT Media Lab. Find it here.


It’s best explained by example. Below, some excerpts (1045AM eastern time on Monday):

—–

Project Brainstorming:

What might we make? Add your own idea, or +1 those you like.

Ways to help

  • SandBag.it: a map of places that need sandbagging, and a way for people to sign up to help sandbag at particular locations.
  • AfterSandy Benefit Parties: when Sandy’s over, have people hold house parties as benefits for people who lose something. Start organizing these early, while there’s lots of attention. Maybe just use MeetUp to do this.
  • CrashPads? Matching people with spare rooms with people who need them?

Sandy Impacts

Apologies for the sometimes-ugly formatting. Cut-and-paste is not always perfect.

More later. Be safe.

Digital Warfare

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Michael Reynolds/European Pressphoto Agency (NY Times)

Today’s New York Times included an article that may turn some digital heads. The next threat may not involve guns and bombs, but stealthy data intended to destroy telecommunications and other essential infrastructure. This ultimate hack is especially nasty because it is so difficult to detect, faceless, instantaneous, and associated with many so many potential points of failure.

As Defense Secretary Leon Panetta attempts to change minds and law, it’s worth your time to (a) stop dreaming of the new iPad Mini for a moment, and (b) consider the ways in which we could and should defend against 21st century cyberwar. Sounds like a science fiction novel, I’m sure, but this is becoming a powerful, significant nightmare scenario.

Innovation versus Institutions

Innovating from inside of an organization is stunning in its difficulty, frustration, and often, it’s difficult to understand why even the simplest of ideas meets with such a high level of friction and sluggish progress. Again, I’ll thank NYU Professor Clay Shirky for his book, Here Comes Everybody, for some sparks that led to this article.

You may recall that my previous post dealt with the connections between the individuals who form a group or a network of groups. Within an organization, those connections are weighted, in part by company hierarchy, in part by control over resources, and in part on the history and fluidity of past relationships. In other words, connections within an organization are often complicated by internal and external factors. And, of course, not every relationship is equally valued. Some connections are stronger than others. You might recall the old 80/20 rule, for example, in which 80 percent of the work is done by 20 percent of the people.

Well, it turns out that the 80/20 rule doesn’t much apply to innovation, or to community interactions. If you look closely at Wikipedia–easily the largest informal group enterprise we’ve ever generated as humans–“fewer than two percent of Wikipedia users every contribute, yet that is enough to create profound value for millions of users. Wikipedia would not be possible if there were concern for inequality.” With a publish-then-filter model now overtaking the older, highly institutionalized model of research-write-edit-rewrite-publish, much more gets written, and errors are corrected along the way, particularly in articles that matter. (Those that don’t much matter are rarely accessed, and so, rarely corrected.) So we have a small number of people–nowhere near 20 percent of the total Wikipedia user base–contributing large amounts for an operation that is a nonprofit, not a business.

It’s here that the divergence becomes interesting. Imagine a business taking on the writing of the world’s largest encyclopedia, one that is never quite published, but always exists in draft form. Companies just don’t work that way–they have processes, standards, and overhead, project management, deliverables, and the entire structure of jobs and careers relies, mostly, upon incremental improvements to the status quo. Very large projects are within the reach of larger institutions, but the process of planning, developing, politicking, funding, hiring and moving people…none of it is simple, and there are ample opportunities for slowdowns, moving off track, shifting priorities, and so much more. That’s how institutions work: they perfect processes over time, but they struggle with entirely new endeavors because the status quo makes so much more sense than the risky new proposition. Massive shifts in thinking are not easy to absorb. Large-scale systemic change does not make sense.

There are fewer than 100 copies of the EB print edition still available (but none in this binding). If you want one, click on this link now (don’t wait!).

Except, of course, that significant, often large-scale, systemic change is becoming a new normal. There is no more Encyclopaedia Britannica in print, no more Tower Records stores, no more Kodak film (well, almost none), no more barriers to global video distribution, no reason why a clever sentence or article can’t be seen by millions of people just an instant after the draft is complete.

So status quo is part of the reason why institutions and innovation aren’t always BFF. But there’s another component, equally important: freedom to fail. When an institution fails, it risks funding, loss of customers, and shifts in leadership. When innovators fail, they may cry in their beer on Friday night, but on Monday morning, they’re back at work, having learned from the flop. No shareholder worries, no customer loss (okay, maybe a little), and in the end, probably more valuable learning than systemic damage. So institutions do all they can to avoid failure, and often, this means extracting the heart of a project or venture, or obfuscating, or demanding more analysis, or some other status quo maneuver. And individuals who are part of, for example, an open source community, correct the errors and move on without substantial loss of momentum (because the primary reason for that community’s existence is to DO things and to avoid NOT DOING things). In this shifted paradigm, the institution struggles to make substantive progress, knowing that the less encumbered other may well cause the death of their venture.

Shirky: “Open source is a profound threat, not because the open source ecosystem is out-succeeding commercial efforts but because it is out-failing them. Because the open source ecosystem, and by extension open systems generally, rely upon peer production, the work on these systems can be considerably more experimental, at considerably less cost, than any firm can afford. Why? The most important reasons are that open systems lower the cost of failure, they do not create biases in favor of predictable but substandard outcomes, and they make it simpler to integrate the contributions of people who contribute only a single idea. The overall effect of failure is its likelihood times its cost. Most organizations attempt to reduce the effect of failure by reducing its likelihood…(making safe choices). Open source doesn’t reduce the likelihood of failure, it reduces the cost of failure; it essentially gets its failure for free…cheap failure, valuable as it is, is also a key part of a more complex advantage: the exploration of multiple possibilities.”

What now? If you haven’t yet read Clay Shirky’s Here Comes Everybody, do it now. If you’ve already done that, you may take the rest of week off. Here he is at Harvard’s Berkman Center for Internet and Society talking about his work….

Group Dynamics – Internet Edition

20121001-220030.jpgOne of the questions that historians may ask about our era is why technology became so ubiquitous, and so central to our lives. The important idea is not technology, of course, but the way we behave as a result of the tools that technology has provided. Mostly, the historian’s answers will focus on new forms of group dynamics, for these provide the underpinning for nearly all of our digital success stories.

(Many of the ideas in this article, and in several articles that follow, were sparked by the brilliant NYU professor Clay Shirky. You should buy his book right now. It is entitled Here Comes Everybody. Stop reading this blog, get your credit card, click here, then c’mon back to finish reading.)

(Welcome back.) While you were away, thirty six of us formed a big circle. And because you were away for a while, we were struggling to pass the time, and the woman next to me proposed a wager. She was willing to bet $50 that no two people in the circle shared a birthday. Nobody took the bet–it seemed like an easy way to lose money.

Shirky: “With 36 people and 365 possible birthdays, it seems like there would be about a one-in-ten chance of a match, leaving you a 90 percent chance of losing fifty dollars. In fact, you should take the bet, since you have better than an 80 percent chance of winning fifty dollars… Most people get the odds of a birthday match wrong… First, in situations involving many people, they think about themselves rather than the group…instead of counting people, you need to count the links between people.”

When counting connections, 1 plus 1 equals 1, but 1 times 4 equals 6. If I’ve done my math correctly, each of the 36 people in the circle has 35 connections, so the equation would be 36*35 or 1,260. If we were calculating unique connections–so we don’t double count both your connection to me and my connection to you, then we would divide by 2, and the number of unique connections would be 630, still a number far larger than 35, the number most people would choose in the bet.

The number of people = 6 (blue circles), but the number of connections = 15 (red lines).

Why does this matter? Consider LinkedIn, an Internet company whose entire operating theory is based in Internet connections. If you are reading this blog, you are likely to be one of my 500+ primary connections (that is, we are directly connected), but you are more likely to be two or three steps away–that is, you may be connected to one of the tens of thousands of people who are connected to my 500+ and even more likely to be connected to the hundreds of thousands (millions?) of people who are connected to the tens of thousands who are two steps away from me.

And why does that matter? It matters because I want to maintain my network, but it is nearly impossible to productively make use of such a large network–the connections are too diffuse, too unreliable, too far out of reach. Instead, my network, and your network, consists of a few dozen people, perhaps as many as a hundred or two hundred. And as long as at least a few of those people–the dozens or hundreds–remain connected to one another, my network remains viable. If, however, I lose contact with a few important connectors, the size and resilience of my network may dissolve.

Shirky again:

“A group’s complexity grows faster than its size…You can see this phenomenon even in small situations, such as when people clink glasses during toast. In a small group, everyone can clink with everyone else; in a larger one, people clink glasses only with those near them.”

And here’s why that matters. If you are trying to accomplish anything meaningful on the Internet that involves connections or interactions between people, you need to understand small world networks. And with that, Shirky closes us out:

“In 1998, Duncan Watts and Steve Strogatz published their research on a pattern they dubbed the “Small World Network.” Small World networks have two characteristics that, when balanced properly, let messages move through the network effectively. The first is that small groups are densely connected. In a small group, the best pattern of connection is that everyone connects with everyone else. The second characteristic of Small World networks is that large groups are sparsely connected. As the size of your your network grew, your small group pattern, where everyone connected to everyone, would become first impractical, then unbuildable. By the time you wanted to connect five thousand people, you would need a half million connections.”

” So what do you do? You adopt both strategies–dense and sparse communities– at different scales…As long as a couple of people in each small group know a couple of people in other groups, you get the advantages of tight connection at the small scale and loose connection at the large scale. The network will be sparse but efficient and robust.”

Thanks to Emil for working out the basic mathematical formula that calculates connections (time prevented us from completing it for all cases). That formula is:

((n)*(n-1)/2 where n = the number of people in the group. Example: ((6)*5)/2 = 15

Since the connection between Person A and Person B is the same connection as Person B and Person A, division by 2 eliminates the double counting.

The formula starts working with 6 people. If anybody knows why the formula falls apart with groups of 5 or fewer group members, please comment below. And, how do we deal with fractions (half a connection divided by two)?

What’s News?

Photo by Norbert Nagel, Mörfelden-Walldorf, Germany via Wikipedia –Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.

When a dog bites a man that is not news, but when a man bites a dog that is news.
Charles Anderson Dana, American journalist, 1819-1897

News is what somebody somewhere wants to suppress; all the rest is advertising.
Lord Northcliffe, British publisher 1865-1922

Okay, that’s a good start. We define news as information that is (i) novel, and (ii) potentially disruptive. A more modern journalist broadens the definition to its breaking point:

Well, news is anything that’s interesting, that relates to what’s happening in the world, what’s happening in areas of the culture that would be of interest to your audience.
Kurt Loder, American journalist, b. 1945

So I guess (iii) is, pretty much, anything at all.

Right now (8:48PM on the east coast of the US on Thursday, September 27, 2012), top news stories include:

  • A Florida woman who lost her leg to an alligator
  • A dog who is the only full-time employee (?)  of a New Mexico police force
  • Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s United Nations speech about Iran
  • The launch of a new Facebook service that allows users to send gifts
  • An office shooting in Minnesota in which two people where killed
  • Curiosity, the Mars Rover, finding an ancient stream
  • The imminent opening of the opera La Boheme in Philadelphia

Obviously, these stories represent a small sampling of the day’s news. Most of the stories are (i) novel because they don’t happen every day; but few are (ii) potentially disruptive in a meaningful way. And, per Kurt Loder’s definition, just about all of this would amuse an audience (particularly, and sadly, the alligator story). And that may the point: news as entertainment. Maybe a higher standard is unreasonable, and perhaps, undesirable, but just the same, let’s give the higher standard a try.

So about that alligator story…How many alligator-related accidents occur each year? Turns out, this woman was 84 years old, lived in a trailer park, fell into a canal, and the alligator did the rest. Accidents happen, but how often? The story tells of two other alligator amputations: one hand (a man) and one arm (a teenager), both earlier this year. Are there laws or common sense rules about living near alligators (beyond the obvious, don’t go near them). Why do we allow people to live near alligators? Why do we allow alligators to live near people? Is this a problem specific to Florida? Anyway, that’s what I want to know. But I’m not sure whether that’s news–and the likes of Yahoo! News seems happiest when there are LOTS of news stories, lots of spicy little items to peruse. All of it, you know, “new” because that’s what news (the plural of new) is all about. And I’m pretty sure “new” should not be primary criteria by which ABC News ought to determine the stories that should be told, or the resources it ought to muster in order to keep us informed.

What about highlights of Netanyahu’s U.N. Speech. Why bother reading it? It’s just the story of a politician going on about his country’s foe. Did you click on the link? I wasn’t going to click on it, but I did. And, it turns out, Reuters did a darned good job. Why? Because Reuters chose not to build the story from script excerpts–which is the normal news treatment. Instead, Reuters explained the story in context, and provided just enough history for me to understand why Netanyahu delivered the speech, why he did so today, what he hoped to accomplish, how the rest of the region would likely respond, and what it all might mean. It’s not just a headline with some bland repetitive crap underneath. It’s a story written by Arshad Mohammed and edited by Todd Eastham. Mohammed is a Reuters foreign policy correspondent, and you can read other stories he has written here. The page includes a small bio so that we know something about Mohammed’s professional credentials and their relevance to his written work. Much of what Mohammed wrote in this story is not new. Instead, he uses today’s significant event and explains its importance. This would be the high standard described earlier.

What might happen if every story, by some sort of people’s requirement, was as well-researched and well-told as Mohammaed’s? Well, for one thing, we’d know a lot more about the unfortunate 84-year old woman’s life, and life in a trailer park, and we’d know a lot more about alligators. The higher standard lifts the sensational “man bites dog” headline from the lowest level of human consumption (lust for the novel) to a far more interesting place where we learn something meaningful about the human and gator conditions.

Extend the high standard and the storytelling becomes rich and, perhaps, more deserving of our time. Facebook gifts–how is this likely to change our gift economy and the faceless interactions made so convenient by Facebook? What’s so special about La Boheme? What else does Mars Rover likely to find, and what does this mean in terms of our understanding of the universe? Should we be looking into the increase in public shootings, and insisting that law enforcement approach the problem in new or different ways, or is there reason to be comfortable with current practice?

I sure would like to know a lot more than I’m being told. If it’s new, I really don’t care. If it’s new and important, tell me why so that I will understand.

What’s the best way to accomplish this? (a) Fewer news stories, but more meat on the bones of the ones that are published; (b) More news stories, presented in greater depth and with greater attention to audience needs; (c) Greater attention to advertiser and funder needs? I don’t know, but there’s a lot to discuss in future articles.