Why Don’t We Know More about Africa?

Simple question. Simple answer, too. Most students in most parts of the world don’t spend much time learning about Africa. There are pyramids, lions, and drums, and for more advanced students, Apartheid, e-bola, the history of slave trade, tribes and villages.

Compare that with the list of things you know about Asia, Europe, even Australia. We know more, in part because we learn more at school, and also because Japan, England, France, Australia (the country), China, India, Italy, and other places on those continents play a part in popular culture, the history that’s taught in schools, the news that’s reported in the media, and, undeniably, the food we eat. Early on, kids learn about Italian and Chinese food, but most adults’ familiarity with any food from Africa is likely to result in a list with no items on it.

All of that is about to change.

In 1950, 5 of the world’s largest countries were located in Europe, 2 were in the Americas, 5 were in Asia, and none were in Africa.

By 2050, not one European nation makes the top 20. In the Americas, 3 countries make the list. Ten are 10 Asian nations (including Turkey and Russia). The other 7 are in Africa.

Here’s the tally for 2100. Only 3 of the world’s largest countries are in the Americas. The count for Asia is 7.  The count for Africa: 10 of the top 20.

In this century, half of the world’s kids are being born in Africa. Most of the world’s new schools, hospitals and universities will be built in Africa and Asia. Most of the world’s students will learn and eventually go to work for new companies in Africa and also in Asia.

This data raises some very big questions about where in the world people will live and work. Population in Africa is growing rapidly, but economic growth is lagging. You may have read that the world’s population will soon be 8 billion people–that’s coming in 2024, not very far off. We’ll reach 10 billion by 2054 and 11 billion by 2088. Think about half of those new births happening in Africa. And now consider where those people will grow up, where they will work, and where they will live.

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the work of NGOs are improving the social and economic situation in Africa, so the number of extremely poor people is being reduced. This creates a growing middle class with sufficient resources to consider possible migration to improve their educational and economic situation.

Many of those people will follow old patterns–they will migrate from one place in Africa to another. Some Africans will work to improve their local situations, fighting corruption, improving health care, teaching. Others will decide to leave–and many will move to Europe. Why? Because Africa’s youthful population will find available jobs in European countries where the percentage of older people is steadily increasing. The economic opportunity may greatly exceed the current incoming European population from Africa–that’s what I think will happen.

And that’s the basis for a provocative and well-researched new book called The Scramble for Europe: Young Africa on its Way to the Old Continent by Stephen Smith. Professor Smith is a leading expert on contemporary Africa, a former well-credentialed journalist, and now a Professor of African Studies at Duke University. He’s smart, well-informed and among a small number of people who are writing about this remarkable situation for a general audience. The title is misleading–this is a book about both Africa and Europe, but  here, Africa loses out to Europe in the main title.

What might happen? Smith’s first scenario, called “Eurafrica,” “presupposes a reservoir of goodwill towards African immigrants, who are viewed as the best chance of investing the Old Continent with a younger, more diverse and possibly more dynamic population. The second scenario is called “Fortress Europe,” and it continues a tradition of “rigorously securing its borders,” with a heavy dose of altruistic behavior. The third, with the unpromising name, “Mafia Drift,” and involves a combination of trafficking and other nasty behaviors. The fourth and final is labelled “Bric-a-brac Politics” captures the erratic realties of government action.

For me, it seems very likely that a great many people born in Africa will remain in Africa, and build significant cities with significant universities, business structures and more. This will take shape only in the countries where political and social stability allow for external investment (when nations are unstable, investors tend to either exploit or flee). It’s difficult to migrate, so most people will stay, but there are so many people who are being born in Africa, the vastness of numbers will probably reshape many of the nations in Europe within the next 10, 20 and 50 years. The same will be true for the United States as it realizes that it must shift its focus from a relatively small flow of net immigration gain from Latin America to the far larger number of people who are likely to migrate from Africa. In time, the number of African-born people in the United States will far exceed the number brought here through the slave trade.